Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Such comments coming from within the establishment in China show how ominous the signs are for the Middle Kingdom.

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Even die hard supporters of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) agree that trouble is looming over the horizon. Says, Zhou Tianyang, one of the most well known scholars of CCP, “Unquestionably, at present, we are inward bound to a peak stage of mass incidents. This year, Chinese people may face even more divergences and spars that will test all the more the governing skills of all levels of the CCP and administration.” Incidentally, ‘Mass Incidents’ is Chinese State speak for riots, protests and unrest! Adds Mao Shoulong, Public Administration expert at Renmin University in Beijing, “The social unrest is gathering. It may well prove as the most severe test since 1989.” Such comments coming from within the establishment in China show how ominous the signs are for the Middle Kingdom.

And the signs have been ominous indeed. In the last quarter of 2008, GDP growth rate crashed to 6.8%, down from 13% in 2007. In annualized quarter on quarter terms, the actual GDP growth rate works out to an unimaginable 2%. In fact, there are many credible think tanks and analysts who reckon that actual GDP growth rate in December 2008 and January 2009 may be closer to zero. Exports have actually slumped in December 2008, as per official estimates and have taken a severe beating even in January 2009. Compared to a typically blistering 17% growth in 2007, industrial production grew by a pitiful 5.7% in 2008. According to the OECD, economic activity in China has slumped to levels below that what prevailed in 1989 before the Tiananmen Square massacre that killed thousands. In a recent review of the Chinese economy, The Economist is prepared to stick its neck out and say that a 4% rate of GDP growth is a possibility. The principal cause behind this spectacular downfall is the crash in merchandise exports that is gathering momentum every week. For years and decades, merchandise exports grew in excess of 20% every year. In 2009, they are slated to decline by 10% at least. What is even more shocking is that while exports fell marginally in December 2008, imports crashed by almost 30%. For an economy that is so driven by foreign trade, this can only be disaster.


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Source :
IIPM Editorial, 2008
An Initiative of IIPM, Malay Chaudhuri and
Arindam Chaudhuri (Renowned Management Guru and Economist).


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